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How General Elections Affect Real Estate Values

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We may or may not be looking forward to it, but like it or not, the 2024 General Election is just around the corner. And as if there hasn’t been enough uncertaintly this year about home values, inflation and interest rates, to name just three items, home buyers and sellers may be reconsidering their moving plans yet again.

Does An Election Affect Real Estate Values?

To get to the heart of this topic, we should look at how the history of past presidential elections had on home prices so here’s what we know:

Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda states: “Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal”

Let’s consider a normal year. Historically speaking, in our area, home sales typically slow down in July and August, then they begin to recover from early to mid September until Thanksgiving, when the market slows again until the New Year.

But back to this year. Naturally, people get a bit nervous about making big decisions during election time. But any concerns they have are generally unfounded. History shows that home sales bounce back in December and keep going up the next year.

Home Sales And Prices Should Continue To Trend Upwards

Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that after nine of the last eleven presidential elections, home sales increased the following year. And after seven of the last eight presidential elections, home prices went up the following year.

Add into this, the likelihood that we will see at least one interest rate cut in the near future, followed by a period of stabilization, we can reasonably expect the affect of the election on sales and prices will be minimal.

As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says: “Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

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